Here’s a concise, market-focused update on Golden Pass LNG as of late December 2025:
1. First Cool-Down Cargo & Feedgas Implications
Cool-down cargo: Arrived early December 2025, per FERC and company statements. This is a standard commissioning step, cooling down the liquefaction systems before first LNG production.
Feedgas implications: Feedgas flows are currently minimal (~8–9 MMcf/d, for testing), but will ramp up in late December/January as Train 1 commissioning accelerates. Expect significant feedgas demand (~700 MMcf/d) by February 2026 as first cargo is targeted for export.
2. Nameplate Capacity & Train Start-Up Timeline
Train | Nameplate Capacity (Bcf/d) | Expected Start-Up |
|---|---|---|
Train 1 | ~0.8 | Q1 2026 (first cargo) |
Train 2 | ~0.8 | Late Summer 2026 |
Train 3 | ~0.8 | End 2026 / Early 2027 |
Total | ~2.4 | Full by early 2027 |
Each train is expected to come online at ~6-month intervals.
Full ramp to 2.4 Bcf/d likely by early 2027.
3. U.S. Gas Basis & LNG Flow Path Impacts
Basis impacts: Golden Pass will be a major new source of Gulf Coast demand, tightening local supply and likely supporting Henry Hub and East Texas basis, especially as all three trains ramp up. Haynesville and Permian supply will be key feedgas sources.
LNG flow paths/export destinations: With long-term offtake to Ocean LNG (QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil JV), initial cargoes are expected to flow to Europe and Asia, depending on inter-basin spreads. However, current forward curves show Europe (TTF) as the primary marginal destination, given tight Asia-Europe spreads and lower netbacks to Asia.
4. Construction & Commissioning Status (Trains 2 & 3)
Train 1: Technically complete, commissioning in progress, first cargo expected Q1 2026.
Train 2: Construction ongoing, contract amendments finalized mid-2025; targeting late summer 2026 for startup.
Train 3: Construction active, contract revisions agreed in June 2025; expected end-2026/early-2027.
Delays: Project faced delays in 2024 due to Zachry bankruptcy, but McDermott and Chiyoda now leading completion. FERC and DOE have granted necessary extensions.
Market View
Bullish for U.S. gas prices and Gulf Coast basis into 2026–27, as Golden Pass ramps up and total U.S. LNG feedgas demand could exceed 20 Bcf/d by late 2026. Timing of startup is key: a faster ramp tightens balances, while further delays would be neutral to bearish.
References:
Table: Golden Pass LNG Timeline & Capacity
Train | Capacity (Bcf/d) | Status (as of Dec 2025) | Expected Startup |
|---|---|---|---|
Train 1 | ~0.8 | Commissioning, cooldown | Q1 2026 |
Train 2 | ~0.8 | Construction, contract set | Late Summer 2026 |
Train 3 | ~0.8 | Construction, contract set | End 2026 / Early 2027 |
Summary:
Golden Pass LNG is entering the final commissioning phase, with first cargo expected Q1 2026 and full 2.4 Bcf/d capacity by early 2027. This is a bullish structural shift for U.S. gas, supporting Gulf Coast basis and increasing U.S. LNG exports primarily to Europe, with Asia as a secondary outlet depending on price spreads. Delays are now largely resolved, and the ramp-up will be closely watched by the market.