1. Scarborough–Pluto Train 2 (Woodside)
Size: 8 Mtpa (Pluto Train 2), Scarborough field ~11.1 Tcf reserves
FID: November 2021
Construction Start: Early 2022
Construction Completion: Late 2025 (mechanical), commissioning into 2026
Expected First LNG: 2026
Contract Holders: Foundation offtake: Woodside, LNG Japan (recent 10% stake in Scarborough/Pluto 2), plus uncontracted/portfolio sales. Most volumes are expected to be marketed to North Asia (Japan, Korea, China).
Notes: Scarborough gas is among the lowest carbon intensity for Australian LNG.
2. Barossa to Darwin LNG (Santos)
Size: ~3.7 Mtpa (backfill for Darwin LNG)
FID: March 2021
Construction Start: 2021
Construction Completion: Offshore facilities completed Q2 2025; onshore commissioning Q3 2025
Expected First LNG: Q3–Q4 2025
Contract Holders: Santos (operator, 43.4%), SK E&S, JERA, others. 10-year SPA with Mitsubishi/JERA for 1.5 Mtpa (spot-indexed pricing).
Notes: Project faced legal and environmental delays; now progressing with CO2 offset commitments.
3. Pluto LNG Debottlenecking (Woodside)
Size: +0.4 Mtpa (incremental, via debottlenecking)
FID: 2022
Construction Start: 2023
Completion: 2025
Expected First LNG: 2025
Contract Holders: Portfolio sales; no major new long-term SPAs announced.
4. Gorgon Stage 3 (Chevron)
Size: ~3 Bcm/year gas to WA market, supports 15.6 Mtpa LNG
FID: December 2025
Construction Start: 2026
Completion: 2028 (est.)
Expected First LNG: 2028 (backfill, not new capacity)
Contract Holders: Chevron (47.33%), ExxonMobil (25%), Shell (25%), Osaka Gas, MidOcean, JERA. Most LNG is under legacy long-term contracts with Japanese and Asian buyers.
5. Ichthys Expansion (INPEX)
Size: +0.4 Mtpa (debottlenecking)
FID: 2023
Completion: 2025–2026
Expected First LNG: 2026
Contract Holders: Portfolio/Asian buyers.
6. Proposed: Tamboran NTLNG (Northern Territory LNG)
Size: Up to 6.6 Mtpa (proposed)
FID: Not reached; unlikely before 2027
Notes: Faces major cost and financing hurdles; not expected to proceed soon.
Key Dates Table
Project | FID | Construction Start | Completion | First LNG | Size (Mtpa) | Main Contract Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scarborough–Pluto 2 | Nov 2021 | Early 2022 | Late 2025/2026 | 2026 | 8 | Woodside, LNG Japan, portfolio |
Barossa to Darwin LNG | Mar 2021 | 2021 | Q2–Q3 2025 | Q3–Q4 2025 | 3.7 | Santos, SK E&S, JERA, Mitsubishi |
Pluto Debottlenecking | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 0.4 | Portfolio |
Gorgon Stage 3 | Dec 2025 | 2026 | 2028 (est.) | 2028 (est.) | Backfill | Chevron, Exxon, Shell, Asian buyers |
Ichthys Expansion | 2023 | 2023 | 2025–2026 | 2026 | 0.4 | Portfolio/Asia |
Tamboran NTLNG (proposed) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6.6 (prop.) | n/a |
Market Impact & Price/Flow Disruption
View: Bearish for Australian LNG, Neutral-to-Bearish for Global LNG Prices
Supply Glut: 2025–2028 will see a global LNG supply surge (40%+ new capacity, mostly US/Qatar). Australia’s new output is minor in this context.
Contract Expiry Risk: Many Australian legacy contracts expire post-2030, increasing spot exposure and competition with low-cost Qatari and US LNG.
High Costs: New Australian LNG is among the highest cost globally (>$6/MMBtu for new projects), making it less competitive in a lower price environment.
Demand Shift: Mature Asian buyers (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) are flat or declining; China is pivoting to pipeline and domestic gas; emerging Asia is price sensitive.
Result: Australian LNG will face margin pressure, risk of underutilization, and possible mothballing of older/high-cost trains if prices fall below breakeven.
Global Flows: Incremental Australian supply will be absorbed by Asia, but with more flexible US/Qatar volumes, price spreads (JKM-TTF/HH) may narrow. Australia’s share of global LNG trade is likely to decline as new, cheaper supply dominates.
References
IEEFA, “The Future of Australian LNG” (Jun 2024)
Argus, Enerdata, Patch Personnel, Incorrys, Woodside, Santos, Chevron, AEMO GSOO (2024)
Australian Government Future Gas Strategy (May 2024)
Summary:
Australia’s only major new LNG supply is Scarborough–Pluto 2 (2026), Barossa (2025), and minor debottlenecking. Gorgon Stage 3 is backfill, not net new. All face high costs and rising competition from a wave of US/Qatar supply. The global LNG market is heading into oversupply, which is bearish for prices and puts Australian LNG margins at risk.